From Russia with Hate
The Real Reason Putin is threatening Ukraine
Since November the Russian army has concentrated troops and military equipment along the border with Ukraine and inside occupied Crimea. The Russian army has also moved into Belarus, supposedly for joint military exercises. The logistical costs associated with such a military movement is quite high, specially if it goes on for several months, which it has now. This can’t be categorized as a simple military exercise anymore, this military encirclement of Ukraine is a clear act of aggression and intimidation.
Putin has ignored western countries’ calls for de-escalation and refuses to move his troops away from the Ukrainian border, and has instead come up with a set of his own demands with regards to NATO expansion and membership. This is now accepted by the media and western states as the reason why Putin is holding a loaded gun to Ukraine’s head.
However, the real reason is something entirely different. In fact it is not just one reason, but a combination of sub factors that have led to this recent aggressive Russian posture towards Ukraine.
“Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” -Winston Churchill, 1939. Churchill’s famous assessment of the Russian mentality is still accurate today. Indeed Russians are notorious for being indirect and vague. The Kremlin advocates a certain negotiating tactic that seeks to conceal their most desired outcome, and rather over-signify and reiterate a less important objective. When the less significant objective is rejected by the opposing party, they create the illusion that they have actually come out of negotiations disappointed and given in to a certain compromise.
The complaint of NATO expansion is the less important issue, it is not a sudden security emergency, it has been a reality since decades, with no demonstrable detriment to Russian national interest. Besides the fact that Russia enjoys warm relations with NATO members Hungary and Italy, it can serve Putin well. He can always use it as an excuse to play the “enemy at our border” card to the people and have them unite under him as the only leader who can save them.
What he can’t live with is a flourishing democratic Ukraine having successfully implemented reforms that allow it to fully join the European family. This is something that can threaten his authoritarian rule in Russia, as protests and demonstrations demanding similar changes can precipitate a political crisis and destabilize his regime. Once anti-corruption reforms are fully implemented in Ukraine, and it becomes a rule of law society, Russians will want the same in their own country, more protests will be inevitable and the Kremlin can’t lock up the majority of the population.
Therefore he has to destabilize a liberal democratic Ukraine, and undo the country’s leaps forward. The destabilization of Ukraine is his real (concealed) agenda. While trans-atlantic state leaders are scrambling over how to respond to Putin’s unrealistic NATO demands, the Russian military is increasingly pressuring Ukraine with the aim of achieving other goals.
Putin wants Ukraine in the Eurasian economic union, but even more than that he prefers to have a failed dis-functioning Ukraine, so he can point his finger and tell his people; this is what happens when you have Maidan (color)revolutions, so don’t protest against me, don’t take for granted the stability and peace you have.
This is the main reason for the recent military threats to Ukrainian stability and sovereignty.
Ukraine’s (booming) Economy
A crucial aspect in this destabilization conspiracy is economic growth. In recent years, Ukraine has received substantial foreign direct investments. An Austrian group recently completed the construction of one of the biggest innovative malls in Europe; the Respublika Park in southern Kyiv.
Multi nationals such as Microsoft, Cisco, Apple and IBM have poured in to set up and hire coders and software engineers. Kyiv has become a Tech start-up hub, entrepreneurs and digital nomads have flocked to Ukraine, not bothered nor intimidated by the ongoing war in the east of the country.
These foreign investments will contribute to shaping of a formidable and solid middle class, making Ukraine an attractive consumer market.
For many years now Ukraine’s GDP grew faster than Russia’s, the Hrivna has proven to be more stable than the Ruble, which continues to fall despite rising oil and gas prices.
However, the recent movement of troops and saber rattling have already hit the Ukrainian economy hard. Sovereign bonds are falling and foreign investors are not willing to take any risks and lend hard currency to Ukraine.
European Energy from Ukraine?
The energy angle in this conflict shouldn’t be ignored. Ukraine boasts one of the biggest gas reserves in Europe, and many big energy companies from the US and Europe have already set their eyes on it. Once pipelines to Western Europe are built, it can diminish dependence on Russian gas. This nightmare scenario for Russia is an existential threat, considering gas is Russia’s biggest export and it’s economy is predominantly energy dependent. It is vital for Russia to prevent this from happening. Russia’s military presence in Crimea, Black Sea and Sea of Azov will make it difficult for Ukraine to obtain investments for exploiting the Azov-Kuban basin, while pro-Russia forces in Donetsk and Lugansk occupy parts of the Dnieper-Donetsk basin.
One of the best things that happened for Russia in the 21st century, was Angela Merkel’s insistence on abandoning nuclear power and making Germany a hostage to Russian gas. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Merkel resurface at a Russian conglomerate, with a hefty annual paycheck.
To maintain this dependence on Russia, Putin must scare away corporations which are ready to invest in energy exploration in Ukraine.
Ukraine steals the show
Earlier this month, a Ukrainian satellite was launched into space in collaboration with American company Space X. This milestone success brought Ukraine’s Space industry back into the global league. Such achievements are incomprehensible for Russia, as they are a nation thirsty and desperate for international praise, and they can’t bear to see Ukraine stealing the show and being in the spotlight.
Russians love traveling to Europe for leisure and medical tourism, and want to feel welcome there, but they can’t understand why Ukrainians can travel to the Schengen area visa-free, while they have to go through the tedious, costly and kind of humiliating process of obtaining a visa. The fact that the Ukrainian passport is now much more valuable than the Russian one is a reality not easily digested for Russians. Frustrated and disappointed, Russians blame Ukrainian foreign policy for it, but in fact it was a decision made by the EU, not Ukraine.
Armed forces of Ukraine
Adding to the frustration with this new space partnership development in American-Ukrainian relationships, Russia is faced with yet a further headache with regards to the Kyiv government.
Since the war broke out in 2014, Russia’s military has been unable to obtain components made in Ukraine. Many crucial aspects of Russian military technology are actually produced by Ukrainian companies. For example, high tech guidance systems for Russia’s notorious Satan missiles are made in Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine.
Jokull Johannesson wote an insightful research paper titled; Russia’s war with Ukraine is to acquire military industrial capability and human resources
Ukraine refusing to supply Russia’s military is a serious problem and yet another reason Russia is desperate to have a friendly Moscow puppet controlling Ukraine.
While military cooperation with Russia has halted, Ukraine has engaged in collaborations in aviation with Saudi Arabia and recently Turkey.
The Turkish Bayraktar drones have already been delivered to Ukraine (the engine is actually made in Ukraine) and have destroyed Russian military hardware on the war front. The video footage of these attacks have gone viral on social media, adding fuel to the fire of anger in Kremlin towards Kyiv.
Since 2015, Ukraine's military has gained strength and experience fighting pro-Russian separatists and Russian regular soldiers in Donbass. Military aid from the US, Canada and UK have tremendously increased the defensive capabilities of the armed forces of Ukraine.
Russia has made an assessment of where Ukraine’s army stands in 5 or 10 years considering the current upwards trajectory. The conclusion is that it will be nearly impossible to wage a successful invasion in the future, and the longer Russia waits, the more difficult it gets.
Medvedchuk, future Moscow puppet?
On the 10th of January this year, the Pechera district court in Kyiv extended the house arrest of pro-Russian politician and tycoon Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Last year his TV channels were shut down and investigations against him are ongoing.
For Putin, this means the most potent Russian disinformation outlet inside Ukraine has been taken down.
In 2014 Russia failed to garner enough rebel support in the Donbass and Odessa region. Medvedchuk was Putin’s hope for a better propaganda campaign in Ukraine and a capable pro-Russian Presidential candidate, another Moscow puppet in the making.
If Putin doesn’t come to the rescue of his ally, it will send a clear message to his cronies around the world; Putin is unreliable and abandons his loyalists.
This could be another reason Kremlin is threatening Ukraine with a massive troop build-up, hoping Kyiv will cave in and release the pro-Russian oligarch.
Putin has an unhealthy obsession with Ukraine, unable to accept the choice the country has made to incorporate itself into the European family, and away from Russian domination and influence. He is acting like an emotionally unstable, envious ex who can’t let go of a failed relationship. It’s almost like there is something personal which is influencing the whole foreign policy of the biggest country in the world.
Preventing Putin
There are many options for NATO to deter a devastating invasion and punish Russia for threatening Ukraine. Sanctions against Kremlin, arming Ukraine and Georgia and mobilizing NATO members can curb further Russian military adventurism.
Although it’s tempting to give Moscow a taste of their own poison, one thing we shouldn’t do is destabilize Russia and encourage separatism.
Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world and in fact it does serve as a guarantee for its stability and sovereignty. The US didn’t support separatists in Chechnya in the 1990s, because the CIA had assessed the risk of jihadists and islamic extremists in Caucasia obtaining nuclear weapons as a bigger risk to transatlantic security than a stable Russia. The concept of MAD (mutually assured destruction) kept the peace throughout the decades, but this is something which will not deter jihadists who embrace martyrdom.
As mentioned earlier, Putin’s desired negative effects on Ukraine have actually already kicked in without him having to fire a single bullet. My friends in Ukraine have already made a run to the banks and withdrew their funds or transferred them abroad. This can cause the government to impose withdrawal limits as we saw in Greece in 2015. Tourists have begun cancelling their trips to Ukraine, and more importantly, foreign investments have been put on hold as the world awaits the fateful upcoming weeks which could potentially spark a major war in Europe. This harm is being done now while no further sanctions against Russia have been placed. This aggressive and harming behavior by Russia should be met with reciprocity. The Transatlantic state actors need to impose new sanctions against a bullying Russia already, in order to change the course of this asymmetrical war.
